Who should be prioritized for CPR seats and emergent rooms?
Last night, my social media news feed got an update from a Italian senior calling people to stay at home for the benefit of all. She shared a concern about an overwhelming healthcare system with a critical question. It has been around 24 hours since the government decided to lock down an entire region with 16 million people. It includes Milan - the finance and fashion heart of Italy where you could find the best air traveling deals to the rest of the world.
Four days ago, Vietnam got the 17th positive case after 23-days of virus-free. Continuously, we are able to detect 14 more cases, mostly from the UK and in the same air carrier. I started to pay more attention more to see how the Western Countries reacted to CoViD-19 with a very basic question whether I get a virus or not. Most of the time what I get are lengthy stories of bureaucracy and incompetence of the system. Politicians act in front of the media and have no real actions or implement any urgent policies to stop a spread of virus before it become undeniable fact. They keep talking about containment, but indeed just poorly pass it and are waiting for the WHO to announce a pandemic, then jump into mitigation strategies.
Mitigation and containment are two different approaches based on two critical assumptions.
- Containment: We can contain the virus and slow down a spread by strong prevention, aggressive preparation and early detection.
- Mitigation: We can’t contain the virus. Accept that it is gonna stay with us forever like seasonal flu. Then, let’s talk about Influenza. Also, insurance and pharma for hospitalization, drugs and vaccinations.
Based on data, we have learned that ten days is enough for 85-95% cases to surge up in South Korea and Italy. One of the critical components to claim this statement is an effort from the government to control the early stage of an epidemic with strong policies.
Let us come with facts first
- It takes 18 months for the vaccine available - confirmed by WHO.
- It takes 10-15 years for drug discovery.
- Virus has two mutations with one cause highly infectious and severe symptoms occupied 70% cases in China.
- It has been two months since the first outbreak in China. We lack independent scientific studies based on empirical evidence.
- Current fatality rate of CoViD-19 is 3.5-3.8% estimated by a total number of death/ a total number of positive cases.
A SWOT if a country tries to implement a policy
|Pros||- Reduce workload of healthcare system, i.e. emergency room and intensive care units. - Reduce and stop a spread of virus into communities. - Reduce number of deaths||(Situation will be treated like a common flu, but you have no drug, no vaccines. Pray for your immune system!)|
|Cons||- Suddenly delay or cancel social gathering events. - A huge economy loss in service sectors. - Require a tremendous amount of extra capital to support small and medium business.||- Need special hosptialization with health experts for therapeutic interventions. - Overload in the healthcare system, especially doctors, nurses and health professionals. - High number of deaths, especially vulnerable groups such as senior citizens, people with pre-existing health condition and health workers.|
A common process started with a strong initiatives from government:
Best example of containment: China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam.
- Cancel or postpone all social gathering events including spiritual and cultural gathers, music festivals, conferences.
- Temporarily shutdown schools, close common spaces like coffee shops, business.
- Lock down an entire city/region and more seriously, freeze an entire economy.
A common process in the Western Countries such as the US, the UK and Australia.
1.You feel sick knowing by yourself.
2.If you need a medical certificate for coronavirus, very likely you are going to pay a testing fee up to thousand dollars with private insurance.
- If Government/ Federal agencies like the Center of Disease Control provide a lab test, it will be free. But this process is very time consuming.
- Stay at home 14 days, or self-isolation.
3.In the 14-day period:
- If you are OK during that period of time, let you come back to a normal life. Remember to wash your hands regularly and avoid crowded places and commonly commute by train, air, and cruise ship. And pray that you don’t feel sick again.
- If your situation becomes worse, call a health emergency. Pray for an insurer for in-network treatment and hospital unless you are very likely to be bankrupt for 20 day treatment with emergency room, intensive unit care and hospitalization.